Streaming data now a proper scored factor. Spotify streams (as of 15 May, confirmed): Italy 26.5M, Sweden 19.5M, Finland 13.4M, Denmark 5.7M, Cyprus 5.6M, Greece 5.0M, Israel 4.9M, Germany 4.5M, Bulgaria 3.1M, Austria 2.8M, Moldova 2.7M, Romania 2.6M, Croatia 2.5M, Norway 2.5M, Australia 2.4M. YouTube views also factored: Cyprus leads with 5.9M. Streaming converted via log scale (same method as odds) to prevent Italy's 26.5M from overwhelming everything else.
Australia streaming caveat: Delta Goodrem ranks only 15th in Spotify streams (2.4M) despite being 2nd in the betting. Her surge is entirely jury-show-driven, not pre-existing song popularity. Italy tops streaming by a large margin but is only 8th in the odds — suggesting the jury and televote markets have already discounted the streaming lead. The model tries to hold this tension honestly. Historical vote magnitude: Finland and Sweden have historically received very large absolute jury point totals when they win or near-win; this is reflected in the jury history component being scored by average points received, not just finishing position.
Model weights
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Predicted top 10
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What streaming data changes vs the previous model:
Italy moves up significantly — 26.5M streams is a genuine signal, and combined with a strong jury history and slot 22, they become a credible top 5 threat. Sweden moves up too — 19.5M streams despite 130 Betfair odds suggests the song has a real European audience even if the live performance didn't impress rehearsal-watchers. Australia drops slightly — only 2.4M streams means this is pure performance buzz, not pre-existing popularity. Cyprus rises — leads YouTube with 5.9M views and 5.6M Spotify, which is the fanbase appeal story in concrete numbers. Denmark holds despite odds collapse — 5.7M streams is still real engagement.
Vote magnitude note: The jury history and televote history scores now reflect approximate average points received per appearance (not just finishing position), based on Eurovision database patterns. Sweden, Italy, Ukraine and France all score higher on this basis than their finishing positions alone would suggest, because they receive large point totals even in mid-table finishes. The UK scores lower — consistent low absolute points totals regardless of finish.